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Medtronic Stock Finds Its Footing—Now It’s Gaining Momentum

Written by Thomas Hughes. Published 11/19/2025.

It took Medtronic (NYSE: MDT)

Chart action reflects that shift, indicating a bottoming process that unfolded over several years.

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Key details: price cleared a crucial hurdle in early 2025, formed a Golden Crossover, and confirmed a market reversal after the fiscal year 2026 (F2026) Q2 earnings release.

In this scenario, MDT could rally across the coming quarters—potentially for years—if it sustains modest growth, healthy margins, strong cash flow, and steady capital returns.

Medtronic’s stock could advance 20%–30%, possibly more, given the favorable growth outlook. The company is sustaining mid-single-digit growth in F2026, and results are accelerating, prompting guidance upgrades and suggesting consensus forecasts may be conservative.

As of mid-November, MarketBeat consensus forecasts expect mid-single-digit growth over the next five to six years, with gradual margin improvement along the way.

Capital returns are a significant factor — dividends, dividend growth, and share buybacks. The dividend yield of 2.95% is attractive; with a payout ratio around 50%, the payments appear sustainable.

Dividend increases are likely: the company is a Dividend Aristocrat with more than 40 years of consecutive increases, supported by earnings growth and a healthy balance sheet. Share buybacks continue to reduce the share count each quarter and are expected to be sustained for the foreseeable future.

Medtronic Fires on All Cylinders in Q2 F2026

Medtronic reported a strong FQ2, with growth across all segments and $8.96 billion in net revenue — a 6.6% year-over-year (YOY) increase and an acceleration from the prior year that slightly outpaced consensus.

Strength was underpinned by 5.5% organic growth and a 10.8% rise in the Cardiovascular portfolio, driven by a 71% jump in cardiac ablation sales. Diabetes sales climbed 10.3% year-over-year (YOY), with smaller gains in the Neurosciences and Medical-Surgical segments.

Margin news was positive. Operational execution and no tariff surprises drove incremental margin improvement and faster earnings growth. Adjusted earnings rose 8% versus a 6.6% revenue gain, outpacing MarketBeat consensus by a wider margin, and management expects the strength to continue.

Q2 strength prompted management to raise full-year guidance. The company increased its organic growth forecast by 50 basis points to 5.5%, slightly above consensus; the EPS-range midpoint now sits above consensus. Management may raise targets again after FQ3.

Institutional and Analyst Trends Indicate Accumulation Underway

Institutional and analyst trends indicate accumulation is underway. Institutions — which own more than 80% of shares — bought the stock steadily over the past 12 months and increased purchases in late Q3 and early Q4.

Institutional demand provides a supportive base, mirrored by analyst activity: expanded coverage, firmer sentiment, and rising price targets. The consensus price target of $103 implies modest upside, though recent updates suggest potentially larger gains.

The question now is whether these groups will continue to buy and lift targets; the Q2 updates suggest they will.

The post-release price action was solid. The stock jumped about 5% soon after the open, confirming support at a key pivot (the prior resistance and trading-range top) and setting a new high. That confirms a technical reversal and opens the door to a sustainable rally.